I mention the predicted winner of the 2020 U. S. Presidential election below based on the primary model he relied on to make his argument. My point is the only poll that matters takes place on election day. The goal is not to embarrass him which is why I didn’t mention his name. The goal is to point out how others have a bad habit of supporting what they want to believe and ignoring evidence that proves they are wrong or at least there are other possible answers available. I try to avoid being guilty of this concept, but I may fall victim to it on occasion.
I am willing to listen to reasonable and rational appeals that are based on facts. In tis case – Follow-up on Something to Ponder – You Can Only Control Your Emotions Unless You Unwisely Give that Power to Others – September 11, 2020, I changed my mind after considering her point. It’s not the only time, but it’s the one time that stood out the most.
I know someone who thinks he knows it all. He’s big on context except when it serves his purpose to take things out of context. In those cases, he has no problem taking something out of context and trying to show how it’s in context. In my dealings with him, if he thinks he is right, he will do his best to prove it by pulling up whatever supports his position even if it means taking it context. It’s worse because he will skim an article or hear part of an interview instead of reading the article or actually listening to the interview.
I don’t claim to know it all. Never have and don’t plan on ever claiming to know it all. What I do with this person is challenge him when it’s clear he is wrong. Last night he was talking about the primary model – http://primarymodel.com/ and how it’s never been proven wrong. I challenged him on it and said it has been wrong on several occasions. Since he didn’t pull up a website showing he was right, that means he knew I was right. The primary model was created by Helmut Norpoth and he has it back to the 1912 U. S. presidential election. According to the website, it was wrong in 1960 and 2000. It relies only on the primary results. Norpoth doesn’t give 100% accuracy. In the current election, he says President Trump has a 91% probability of winning. However, he adds a disclaimer that COVID-19 is an unknown which appears to be his way of hedging his bets on the election. That way he can claim COVID-19 was at fault if Biden wins.
When he knows he is wrong, he will either not try and prove his point. Another option is saying he will look it up later. The third option is to take something out of context to prove his point.